Money & You • November 6, 2025

What a Government Shutdown Really Means for the Housing Market

by John Goldhammer

What a Government Shutdown Really Means for the Housing Market

There’s been a lot of talk lately about how a government shutdown impacts the housing market. You might be wondering: Is it causing everything to grind to a halt?

The short answer? No.

The housing market doesn’t stop. It keeps moving. Homes are still being bought and sold, contracts are still being signed, and closings are still happening. The difference is that a few parts of the process may slow down a little, but overall, the market continues to function.

Here’s What Typically Happens

Whenever the government shuts down, some federal agencies temporarily close or scale back their operations. That can cause a few hiccups in real estate, especially when it comes to processing certain types of government loans and insurance requirements:

“Applicants for FHA, VA, or USDA loans—which account for about one-quarter of all mortgage applications—may encounter significant processing delays due to agency furloughs.” – Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at Cotality
“By recent estimates, more than 2,500 mortgage originations per working day are at risk of delays during a shutdown . . .” – Zillow
Flood insurance approvals may also be paused. The National Flood Insurance Program can be temporarily affected, which delays closings in flood zones.

Even with those challenges and delays, most transactions still go through. Buyers keep buying, sellers keep selling, and agents keep helping people move forward.

The Housing Market Usually Bounces Back Fast

And you can see that play out in this data. If you look back at the most recent government shutdown that began at the end of 2018 and lasted for 35 days, sales activity dipped very slightly during the closure but picked right back up once the government reopened.

Data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) shows existing home sales slowed for about two months, and then rebounded quickly as delayed closings worked their way through the system when the government reopened (see graph below):

What’s important to note is that the slowdown you see in the orange bars on this graph wasn’t simply due to seasonality in a typical housing market cycle. The sharper, shorter drop in this case lines up exactly with the 35-day government shutdown, and then sales bounced back as soon as it ended.

What This Means for You

If you’re in the middle of buying or selling a home, don’t panic. Most deals will still move forward, even if it takes a few extra days. Jeff Ostrowski, Housing Market Analyst at Bankrate, explains:

“If you’re expecting to close in a week or a month, there could be some slight delay, but I think for most people, it’s probably going to be a blip more than a real deal killer.”

And if you’re just starting to think about buying or selling, this could actually work in your favor. Some buyers and sellers may become cautious and pause their plans during times of uncertainty, like this, and that can open a short window of opportunity.

When fewer people are active in the market, well-prepared buyers may find less competition for homes, and motivated sellers may be more willing to negotiate. These brief slowdowns often create a moment where you can make a move that would be harder once activity ramps back up.

Bottom Line

A government shutdown can cause short-term delays for some buyers, but it doesn’t derail the housing market. The last time this happened, sales picked back up as soon as the government re-opened.

If you’re unsure how this might affect your plans, or just want to make sense of what’s happening, let’s connect.

Homeowners • November 5, 2025

Why Your Home Equity Still Puts You Way Ahead

by John Goldhammer

Why Your Home Equity Still Puts You Way Ahead

If you’ve seen headlines about home prices dropping, it’s easy to wonder what that means for the value of your home too. Here’s what you really need to know.

Even with small price declines in some markets, data shows you’re likely still way ahead. And that’s thanks to your home equity.

The Relationship Between Home Prices and Equity

Home equity moves in sync with home prices. When prices rise, equity builds. When prices cool (even just slightly), equity growth does too. Here’s how that’s played out lately.

After the record-setting home price surge of 2020 and 2021, a little cooling was inevitable.

Back then, the number of homes for sale hit a record low. That caused home values (and your equity) to shoot up significantly as buyers fought over limited inventory.

But prices couldn’t continue to rise at that intense pace forever. The market had to moderate at some point, and that’s exactly what we’re seeing right now.

As more homes have come on the market this year, price growth slowed – so, equity gains did too. And that doesn’t mean you’ve lost ground.

Putting it into Perspective

You probably still have far more equity than you did just a few years ago. And that puts you in a strong position if you want to sell. Here’s the data to prove it.

According to research from Zillow, home prices have risen a staggering 45% nationwide since March of 2020. That’s a big jump.

And in the majority of markets, prices are still rising, just at a much slower pace. But even in the metros where prices are experiencing the biggest declines (the ones making the headlines), the average drop is only about -4%.

So, what’s that really mean? In most places, prices are on the rise, so this isn’t even a concern. But in the few metros where prices are cooling off a bit, the 5-year gains more than offset those small dips.

In other words, these modest declines can’t erase years of growth. Homeowners who’ve been in their houses for several years are still way ahead. Big time. And that’s true pretty much everywhere.

Data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) helps paint this picture. Let’s cast a slightly wider net and look at a state-by-state level this time. Every single state has seen prices go up over the last 5 years. And that means homeowners in each state have much more equity than they did just 5 years ago (see graph below):

Odds are, in most places, if you’ve owned your home for more than a few years, you’ve already built the kind of equity many people could only dream about before the pandemic. And if you sell, you can use it to help you downsize, or move up.

And just in case you’re worried prices will crash and your equity will take a bigger hit in the near future, here’s what Jake Krimmel, Senior Economist at Realtor.com, has to say:

“The slight recent declines in aggregate value and total home equity are not cause for concern . . . Although the market is coming into better balance, large price declines nationally are extremely unlikely in the near term . . .”

The price moderation we’ve seen lately isn’t a cause for concern. It’s a signal of a market that’s finding its balance again after several years of unsustainable price growth. And after several years of major price appreciation, most homeowners are still in an incredibly strong position.

Bottom Line

Even with prices coming down in some markets, today’s homeowners are still sitting on near record amounts of equity.

If you’re wondering how much equity you have (or how far ahead you really are), let’s connect.

You might be surprised by what your home is actually worth today.

Money & You • November 4, 2025

32% of First Time Buyers Have Student Debt

by John Goldhammer

Seller Advice • November 3, 2025

The #1 Reason Deals Fall Through Today?

by John Goldhammer

Buyer Advice and Aid • October 29, 2025

Why You Don’t Need to Be Afraid of Today’s Mortgage Rates

by John Goldhammer

Why You Don’t Need To Be Afraid of Today’s Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have been the monster under the bed for a while. Every time they tick up, people flinch and say, “Maybe I’ll wait.” But here’s the twist. Waiting for that perfect 5-point-something rate could end up haunting your wallet later.

The Magic Number

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“. . . a 30-year fixed rate mortgage of 6% would make the median-priced home affordable for about 5.5 million more households—including 1.6 million renters. If rates were to hit that magic number, it’s likely that about 10%—or 550,000—of those additional households would buy a home over the next 12 or 18 months.”

When the market hits that mortgage rate sweet spot, as expert forecasters are starting to say is more likely in 2026, the psychological shift to lower rates will kick in for more of today’s hopeful buyers. That will unleash some pent-up demand that’s been waiting on the sidelines, and the increase in activity will cause prices to rise.

And while a 5.99% rate might sound like a big win, if you’re waiting for that number to make your move, it might not actually save you as much as you think. Here’s how the math looks when you run the numbers (see chart below):

On a $400,000 mortgage, the difference between today’s rate (around 6.2%) and 5.99% is roughly $50 a month. That’s less than many people spend on weekly coffee runs or occasional DoorDash orders. And as prices tick up with more buyers in the market, that could quickly negate any of your potential savings.

So, if you’re waiting for 5.99%, that difference might not be worth missing out on today’s opportunities, like having more homes to choose from, better negotiation leverage with today’s sellers, and fewer buyers out there looking for the same houses.

Because the reality is, those benefits start to slip away when more buyers begin to make their moves – and a rate under 6% is exactly they’re waiting for.

Why Acting Now Makes Sense

Jessica Lautz, Deputy Chief Economist and VP of Research at NAR, says:

“Over the last 5 weeks, mortgage rates have averaged 6.31%. This has provided savvy buyers a sweet spot to reexamine the home search process with more inventory, widening their choices.”

And like Matt Vernon, Head of Retail Lending at Bank of America, notes:

“Rather than waiting it out for a rate that they like better, hopeful homebuyers should assess their personal financial situation—if the house is right for them, and the upfront and monthly payments are affordable, it could be the right chance to make a move.”

Bottom Line

If moving at today’s rate scares you, remember, waiting doesn’t always pay off. Once rates dip below 6%, as some experts project they’ll do next year, more buyers (and higher prices) will be back.

So, don’t be afraid of today’s mortgage rates. Because if you’re ready, this might just be your chance to make your move before the market wakes up again.

Seller Advice • October 27, 2025

Why Some Homes Sell Quickly-and Others Don’t Sell at All

by John Goldhammer

Why Some Homes Sell Quickly – and Others Don’t Sell at All

A few years ago, inventory hit a record low. Just about anything sold – and fast. But now, there are far more homes on the market. Listings are up almost 20% from this time last year. And in some areas, supply is even back to levels we last saw in 2017–2019. For sellers, that means one thing:

Your house needs to stand out and grab attention from day one.

That’s especially true when you consider why the number of homes for sale is up. Here’s how it works. Available inventory is a mix of:

Active Listings: homes that have been sitting on the market, but haven’t sold yet
New Listings: homes that were just put on the market

Data from Realtor.com shows most of the inventory growth lately is actually from active listings that are staying on the market and taking longer to sell (see the graph below).

The blue bars show active listings. These are the homes that are sitting month to month and not selling. The green bars are new listings, the homes that were just put on the market. And it’s clear there are fewer new listings compared to how many are staying on the market unsold.

Since you don’t want your house to be one of the ones that take a long time to sell, let’s break down where things can go sideways and how to set yourself up to sell quickly.

Why Some Homes Sell and Others Sit

The secret to selling in today’s market is simple. Make sure your house is easy for buyers to say yes to as soon as it is listed.

Price it based on current conditions (not what your neighbor sold for 3 years ago). Make important repairs. And highlight the best things about your house. If you do that, it will sell in any market – sometimes even faster than you’d think. Because the truth is, homes that are priced right today are still selling.

It’s the homeowners who are clinging to outdated expectations that are seeing their house sit and their listing go stale. According to Redfin and HousingWire, here are some of the most common reasons sales stall out:

Priced it too high from the start
Skipped necessary repairs before listing
Didn’t stage the house well
Sellers won’t negotiate with buyers
Limited availability for showings
Ineffective marketing or listing pictures

Most of those things didn’t matter as much just a few years ago. When inventory was at a record low, sellers could skip the prep, name their price, and still walk away with multiple offers over their asking price.

But today’s market is different now that inventory has grown. And that means your approach needs to be different too.

You don’t want to try out old strategies and aim too high just to see what sticks. Your first few weeks on the market are everything. That’s when your listing gets the most attention – and when pricing or presentation mistakes hurt the most. Get it wrong up front and your house will sit…and sit. Get it right, and it’ll be snatched up before you know it.

The Right Agent Helps Your House Stand Out

Selling quickly isn’t about luck. It’s about knowing how to play to the market you’re in. And that’s where your agent comes in.

A great agent will analyze your local market, suggest a price based on the latest comparables sold in your neighborhood, and create a marketing plan that makes buyers pay attention from day one. They’ll also walk you through any repairs you need to make or whether you need to bring in a staging company. As the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

“Home sellers without an agent are nearly twice as likely to say they didn’t accept an offer for at least three months; 53% of sellers who used an agent say they accepted an offer within a month of listing their home.”

That’s the power of getting it right (and getting expert help) from the start.

Bottom Line

There are more homes for sale today than there were even just a year ago, but that doesn’t have to work against you.

When your house is priced right, shows well, and is marketed effectively, it will sell. Let’s connect if you want to know how to make that happen in our market this fall.

Real Estate Trends • October 20, 2025

Is the Housing Market Going to Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

by John Goldhammer

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

If you’ve seen headlines or social posts calling for a housing crash, it’s easy to wonder if home values are about to take a hit. But here’s the simple truth.

The data doesn’t point to a crash. It points to slow, continued growth.

And sure, it’s going to vary by local area. Some markets will see prices rise more than others. And some may even see small, short-term declines. But the big picture is: home prices are expected to rise nationally, not fall, over the next 5 years.

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

In the Home Price Expectations Survey (HPES) from Fannie Mae, each quarter over 100 leading housing market experts weigh in on where they project home prices will go from here. And in the report that was just released, the experts agree prices are projected to climb nationally through at least 2029 (see graph below):

Here’s how to read this visual. Each bar in that graph shows an increase, not a loss. It’s just that the anticipated pace of that appreciation varies year-to-year.

And to further drive this home, let’s look at another view of where prices are and where they’re expected to go. In this version, the expert forecasts are broken into 3 categories: the overall average, the most optimistic projections, and the most pessimistic projections (see chart below):

Notice how even the most pessimistic forecasters say we’ll see prices rise by almost 5% over the next few years.

Overall, prices are expected to rise about 15% from now through the end of 2029.
The optimists say we’ll beat that and see a roughly 26% increase.
And even the pessimists anticipate prices will go up by 5% during that period.

What sticks out the most? None of these groups who study the market are forecasting a crash, or even a decline, over the next 5 years.

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Now, focus back on the first graph. The projections call for 2-3.5% price increases in each of the next five years. For context, the average rate of appreciation for the last 25 years was closer to 4-5% annually.

So, while that’s slightly below the historical average, it’s much more sustainable and typical than where the market was in 2020, 2021, and 2022.

Back then, prices rose too much, too fast based on record-low supply and record-high demand. Some places even saw prices climb by 15-20%.

So, while it may feel like prices are stalling compared to those pandemic-era surges, what’s really happening is that the market is finally finding balance again.

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

A lot of the chatter about home prices today is based on that rapid rise and the old saying that what goes up, must come down. But historically, that’s not really true. Home prices almost always rise.

And the main reason we’re not heading for a repeat of 2008 is simple: supply and demand.

Even though affordability challenges have made it harder for some people to buy over the past few years, there still aren’t enough homes for everyone who wants one. And that ongoing shortage is keeping upward pressure on prices nationally.

That’s why experts across the board can confidently agree: we’re not headed for a price collapse, but for steady, long-term appreciation.

And just in case it’s the economy that’s got you worried, remember this. Over the past 50 years, there have been plenty of economic events that have impacted the market. And one thing that’s consistently been true throughout time is the housing market always recovers. And we’re coming through that turn right now and going into a recovery.

Bottom Line

If you’ve been waiting to buy or sell because you’re worried about a crash, it’s time to look at the data – not the headlines.

The question isn’t if home prices will rise, it’s by how much.

Let’s connect so you know what’s happening in our local market and what these forecasts mean for your next move.

The Market • October 15, 2025

2026 Housing Market Forecast

by John Goldhammer

2026 Housing Market Outlook

After a couple of years where the housing market felt stuck in neutral, 2026 may be the year things shift back into gear. Expert forecasts show more people are expected to move – and that could open the door for you to do the same.

More Homes Will Sell

With all of the affordability challenges at play over the past few years, many would-be movers pressed pause. But that pause button isn’t going to last forever. There are always people who need to move. And experts think more of them will start to act in 2026 (see graph below):

What’s behind the change? Two key factors: mortgage rates and home prices. Let’s dive into the latest expert forecasts for both, so you can see why more people are expected to move next year.

Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

The #1 thing just about every buyer has been looking for is lower mortgage rates. And after peaking near 7% earlier this year, rates have started to ease.

The latest forecasts show that could continue throughout 2026, but it won’t be a straight line down (see graph below):

There’s a saying: when rates go up, they take the escalator. But when they come down, they take the stairs. And that’s an important thing to remember. It’ll be a slow and bumpy process.

Expect modest improvement in mortgage rates over the next year but be ready for some volatility. There will be volatility along the way as new economic data comes out. Just don’t let it distract you from the bigger picture: the overall trend will be a slight decline. Forecasts say we could hit the low 6s, or maybe even the high 5s.

And remember, there doesn’t have to be a big drop for you to feel a change. Even a smaller dip helps your bottom line.

If you compare where rates are now to when they were at 7% earlier this year, you’re already saving hundreds on your future mortgage payment. And that’s a really good thing. It’s enough to make a real difference in affordability for some buyers.

Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

What about prices? On a national scale, forecasts say they’re still going to rise, just not by a lot. With rates down from their peak earlier this year, more buyers will re-enter the market. And that increased demand will keep some upward pressure on prices nationally – and prevent prices from tumbling down.

So, even though some markets are already seeing slight price declines, you can rest easy that a big crash just isn’t in the cards. Thanks to how much prices rose over the last 5 years, even the markets seeing declines right now are still up compared to just a few years ago.

Of course, price trends will depend on where you are and what’s happening in your local market. Inventory is a big driver in why some places are going to see varying levels of appreciation going forward. But experts agree we’ll see prices grow at the national level (see graph below):

This is yet another good sign for buyers and overall affordability. While prices will still go up nationally, it’ll be at a much more sustainable pace. And that predictability makes it easier to plan your budget. It also gives you peace of mind that prices won’t suddenly skyrocket overnight.

Bottom Line

After a quieter couple of years, 2026 is expected to bring more movement – and more opportunity. With sales projected to rise, mortgage rates trending lower, and price growth slowing down, the stage is set for a healthier, more active market.

So, the big question: will you be one of the movers making 2026 your year?

Let’s connect if you want to get ready.

Buyer Advice and Aid • October 14, 2025

1 in 5 Sellers Are Dropping Their Asking Prices Right Now

by John Goldhammer

Have you heard? 1 in 5 sellers are dropping their asking price right now.

And that opens the door for buyers like you to negotiate for a better price.

You’ve got more leverage than you’ve had in years.

Want to know which negotiation tactics are actually working for buyers here in our local market? DM me and I’ll give you the details.

#Homebuying #HousingMarketUpdates #KeepingCurrentMatters

Buyer Advice and Aid • October 13, 2025

Why More Buyers Are Turning to New Construction This Year

by John Goldhammer

Why More Buyers Are Turning to New Construction This Year

There’s a trend taking hold in real estate right now: more buyers are choosing newly built homes. And it’s not just about getting the latest technology or modern floorplans. It’s because they may be able to get a better deal.

Builders are offering serious incentives today, and people are jumping on them. In fact, new home sales just hit their highest level in over two years (see graph below):

Why Builders Are Throwing in Perks

There are more newly built homes for sale right now than there have been in years. And as a buyer, that can help you in two big ways. It gives you more options to choose from on the market, and it motivates builders to sell their inventory before they build more.

That’s exactly why more buyers are scoring incentives like these:

Mortgage rate buydowns to shrink your monthly payment
Price cuts that make homeownership more attainable
Help with closing costs and even upgrades in some communities

The best part is, a lot of builders are offering these perks right now. According to Zonda, nearly 6 out of 10 new home communities are doing incentives on to-be-built homes. And over 75% are doing the same for quick move-ins, which are homes that are already built and ready to move into. As real estate analyst Nick Gerli explains:

“. . . builders are adjusting to the realities of the current housing market. They’ve cut prices 13 percent from peak, and are giving generous mortgage rate buydowns on top of that.”

The big takeaway is: builders are motivated to sell. So, you could snag a lower price and maybe even a lower mortgage rate if you buy new. If you’ve been feeling priced out, these offers might be your way back in.

You Have More Brand-New Options Than Normal

Since there are more new homes on the market than usual, that gives you more options than you’ve had in years. Whether you’re looking for something turnkey or want to personalize a build, odds are there’s more available near you than you may realize.

Even though the number of new homes for sale is up throughout the country, there are pockets where you have an even better chance to find a better price. According to Census data, here’s a high-level look at which parts of the country are seeing the biggest boost in newly built homes (see graph below):

Both the South and West have more new homes available, so you may find builders are even more willing to negotiate in these regions.

Just know that this opportunity won’t last forever. Recent data shows builders are slowing down their production efforts. And a lot of that is to avoid having too many homes for sale. As Robert Dietz, Chief Economist at the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), explains:

“The slowdown in single-family home building has narrowed the home building pipeline. There are currently 621,000 single-family homes under construction, down 1% in July and 3.7% lower than a year ago. This is the lowest level since early 2021 as builders pull back on supply.”

Moving forward, the number of new options may start to shrink as builders focus more on selling what’s already built before they add more. So, the best time in years to buy a new home may actually be right now.

Bottom Line

With builders cutting prices and maybe even helping you score a lower monthly payment, that’s not something to overlook.

If you want to see how active builders are in your target area and what they’re offering, here’s your power move: before you even begin looking, let’s connect.

That way, you have your own agent to help you compare incentives from multiple builders and negotiate on your behalf, making sure you get the best deal possible.

What a Government Shutdown Really Means for the Housing Market

Here’s What Typically Happens

The Housing Market Usually Bounces Back Fast

What This Means for You

Bottom Line

Why Your Home Equity Still Puts You Way Ahead

The Relationship Between Home Prices and Equity

Putting it into Perspective

Bottom Line

Why You Don’t Need To Be Afraid of Today’s Mortgage Rates

The Magic Number

Why Acting Now Makes Sense

Bottom Line

Why Some Homes Sell Quickly – and Others Don’t Sell at All

Why Some Homes Sell and Others Sit

The Right Agent Helps Your House Stand Out

Bottom Line

Is the Housing Market Going To Crash? Here’s What Experts Say

The Real Story Is in the Expert Forecasts

How This Compares to “Normal” for the Market

Why Prices Aren’t Expected To Crash

Bottom Line

2026 Housing Market Outlook

More Homes Will Sell

Mortgage Rates Could Continue To Ease

Home Price Growth Will Be Moderate

Bottom Line

Why More Buyers Are Turning to New Construction This Year

<img decoding="async" src="https://files.keepingcurrentmatters.com/KeepingCurrentMatters/content/images/20251009/20251013-New-Home-Sales-Hit-The-Highest-Level-original.png" data-eio="l" />Why Builders Are Throwing in Perks

You Have More Brand-New Options Than Normal

Bottom Line

Why Builders Are Throwing in Perks